NATO is showing no indications of allowing Ukraine to join its ranks in the near future as the alliance seeks more information from President Volodymyr Zelenskyy regarding his “victory plan” aimed at resolving the conflict with Russia. The plan revolves around Ukraine’s request for NATO to progress with its membership application, submitted two years ago, in order to seek protection under the alliance’s security umbrella following Russia’s full-scale invasion.
NATO’s credibility is underpinned by its collective security guarantee, Article 5 of its founding treaty, which obliges all 32 member countries to come to the aid of any member facing an attack on its sovereignty or territory. However, this commitment does not extend to partner countries like Ukraine.
NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte refrained from endorsing the “victory plan,” stating that he and the allies are “taking note” of it. He did not provide specifics on when Ukraine could potentially join the alliance but reiterated that it would eventually become a member. Rutte highlighted the need for further discussions with Ukraine to comprehend the various political and military aspects of the plan.
While NATO is focused on assisting Ukraine in regaining territory and strengthening its position for future peace negotiations, Zelenskyy is scheduled to present elements of his plan to EU leaders on Thursday. Ukraine is currently combatting better-equipped Russian forces, particularly in the eastern Donetsk region, where they are facing challenges in retaining control. The slow pace of Western assistance has been a concern for Ukraine amid the ongoing crisis.
Zelenskyy underscored the significance of a NATO invitation for Ukraine, referring to it as a testament to allies’ determination to support the country’s endeavours. The issue of Ukraine’s NATO membership has been under consideration by the alliance for 16 years, with little progress apparent since the commitment made in 2008 that Ukraine would one day join NATO alongside Georgia.
The United States, a key NATO member, is preoccupied with its upcoming presidential election, which is expected to influence developments regarding Ukraine’s membership. Concerns about being drawn into a broader conflict with Russia, particularly in light of its nuclear capabilities, have contributed to a cautious approach towards Ukraine’s inclusion in NATO. Clear demarcation of Ukraine’s borders is considered a prerequisite for its NATO membership to define the scope of the Article 5 guarantee in the event of an incursion.
As Ukraine grapples with territorial losses and seeks to strengthen its position, the question of its NATO membership remains unresolved. The alliance’s stance on Ukraine’s potential accession is intertwined with broader geopolitical considerations and the need for a comprehensive resolution to the conflict with Russia.