Robert F Kennedy Jr’s endorsement of Donald Trump has been deemed more influential in the 2024 election than Taylor Swift’s backing of Kamala Harris, according to a top pollster. Nate Silver, the veteran election forecaster and founder of FiveThirtyEight, described RFK Jr’s endorsement as the “most important” of the race so far.
In a recent episode of his Risky Business podcast, Silver highlighted the impact of RFK Jr’s endorsement on the election outcome. The independent presidential candidate announced on August 23 that he was withdrawing from the race and supporting Trump, acknowledging that he had no viable path to electoral victory. Prior to this decision, he had around 3.3 percent of support in national polls.
Silver, known for his accurate predictions, mentioned that RFK Jr’s move coincided with a slight decline in Harris’s polling numbers. The pollster suggested that this endorsement had a meaningful impact, resulting in a loss of about half a percentage point for Harris.
Following RFK Jr’s endorsement of Trump, Taylor Swift declared her support for Harris in a post on Instagram. Despite Swift’s massive following and her previous endorsement for Joe Biden in the 2020 election, her influence on the polls was minimal, according to Silver. He noted that even though over 400,000 people accessed the voter registration site after her endorsement, it did not significantly affect the polling numbers.
Silver also speculated that Swift’s prior political stance might have diminished the novelty of her endorsement for Harris. Currently, Harris maintains a 2.8-point lead over Trump in the latest national polls.
The vice presidential debate, where Harris and Trump exchanged criticisms, is expected to have had a small impact on the overall election landscape. A CBS flash survey slightly favored Senator JD Vance as the debate winner, but only one percent of viewers reported a change in their voting decision, as per a CNN snap poll.
In conclusion, RFK Jr’s endorsement of Trump has emerged as a key player in the dynamics of the 2024 election, overshadowing other high-profile endorsements such as Taylor Swift’s support for Harris. Silver’s analysis underscores the complex and sometimes surprising influences that shape the political landscape leading up to the election day.