Mexico’s new president, Claudia Sheinbaum, has unveiled a plan to tackle drug cartel violence in the country. However, experts suggest that the strategy may just be a continuation of previous policies rather than a significant shift. Sheinbaum aims to enhance intelligence and investigative efforts, but her approach seems to align with the “hugs, not bullets” stance of her predecessor, Andres Manuel López Obrador.
López Obrador’s term was marked by a failed attempt to reduce Mexico’s high homicide rate, as he chose not to directly confront the cartels and instead relied on the armed forces and appeals to gangs to maintain peace. Security analyst David Saucedo highlighted that there is a persistent emphasis on the militarization of public safety and continued social programs aimed at deterring youth recruitment by criminal organizations.
Former head of the DEA’s foreign operations, Mike Vigil, commented that Sheinbaum’s plan appears to offer more of the same strategies that have been in place. Mexico recorded a homicide rate of approximately 24 per 100,000 inhabitants in 2023, significantly higher than that of the U.S. Extortion has also become a growing concern as cartels engage in this illegal activity alongside migrant smuggling to boost their profits.
Sheinbaum attributed the violence in Guanajuato, a state with high homicide rates, to low wages, suggesting a failed development model. However, Saucedo argued that poverty alone does not explain the situation, pointing out the strategic significance of Guanajuato’s transportation links for cartels moving drugs towards the U.S. border.
The National Guard, intended initially to be under civilian command but predominantly controlled by the army, has faced criticism for its limited impact in curbing crime. National Guard officers are often hesistant to intervene in rural areas without explicit orders, with a significant portion of the force dedicated to migrant apprehension rather than law enforcement activities.
Omar García Harfuch, Sheinbaum’s top security official, has pledged to shift the National Guard’s focus towards acting more like a police force, including establishing a national security academy for enhanced training and intelligence integration efforts. Addressing ongoing challenges, such as the recent brutal killing of the mayor of Chilpancingo, shows the urgency of implementing effective security measures throughout the country.
Despite some fluctuations in homicide rates over the years, the persistence of cartel violence underscores the need for comprehensive and sustainable solutions beyond traditional military approaches. With a focus on intelligence-based investigations and targeted law enforcement strategies, Mexico’s fight against drug-related violence remains a complex and evolving challenge under Sheinbaum’s leadership.