The Lithuanian opposition Social Democratic Party has emerged as the leader following the first round of national elections, indicating their intention to initiate negotiations to establish a new government with left-leaning parties. This move would potentially oust the incumbent center-right coalition that has been in power for the past four years.
After the first round of voting on Sunday, the Social Democrats secured 18 out of the initial 70 seats in the 141-seat Seimas, one seat ahead of Prime Minister Ingrida Šimonytė’s ruling Homeland Union party. The second round of voting is scheduled for October 27, where single-member constituencies will choose between the top two candidates from the first round.
Šimonytė’s government, which assumed office in 2020, saw economic success; however, its handling of COVID-19 restrictions and a surge in migrant arrivals have generated criticisms. The opposition, led by Social Democrat Vilija Blinkevičiūtė, plans to form a coalition with the center-left Democratic Union (with eight seats) and potentially the Farmers and Greens Union (with six seats). The Social Democrats have ruled out an alliance with the party led by right-wing politician Remigijus Žemaitaitis, who garnered 14 seats but faced impeachment earlier in the year for making antisemitic remarks. Additionally, the Liberal Union secured seven seats.
Political analysts note that Lithuania’s electoral history shows a pattern of voter preference shifts every four years. Margarita Šešelgytė, from the Institute of International Relations and Political Science in Vilnius, highlighted this trend, stating, “Not a single time since the early 1990s have Lithuanians voted in two consecutive elections for the same party to run the country.”
Amid concerns over Russia’s actions, particularly in light of the conflict in Ukraine, a leftward shift in Lithuanian politics is not anticipated to bring significant changes to foreign policy. Lithuania, an EU and NATO member, shares borders with Russia’s Kaliningrad exclave and Belarus, heightening strategic concerns in the Baltic region.
The voter turnout for this election stood at 52.1%, up from 47.2% in the previous election in 2020, according to official figures.
The developments in Lithuania’s ongoing election reflect a potential political reshaping that could impact the country’s future direction and relationships on the global stage.