Vice President Kamala Harris is holding a substantial lead over former President Donald Trump among early voters, according to a recent poll by USA TODAY/Suffolk University. The poll reveals that Harris is ahead of Trump by a margin of 63 percent to 34 percent among individuals who have already cast their ballots. In contrast, among voters planning to wait until Election Day to vote, 52 percent lean towards Trump, while 35 percent support Harris.
The trend of early voters favouring the Democratic candidate and those waiting until Election Day favouring the Republican opponent is evident in the latest polling data. States have already commenced early mail-in and in-person voting, with one in seven respondents stating they have already voted and one-third planning to vote early. Among early voters, Harris leads Trump by 52 percent to 39 percent, while those planning to vote on Election Day show a tighter margin of 45 percent for Harris and 44 percent for Trump.
The poll, conducted between October 14-18 and comprising 1,000 respondents, with a 3.1 plus or minus margin of error, highlights that one in five voters who have already voted identified “abortion rights/women’s rights” as their top concern, followed closely by the economy and inflation. David Paleologos, director of Suffolk’s Political Research Center, noted that the early voting advantage for Harris provides Democrats with an opportunity to sway Election Day voters and strengthens her position going into November.
The shift towards early voting has been influenced by the differing approaches taken by Democrats and Republicans following the 2020 election. Democrats were more inclined to vote early or by mail, partly due to Trump’s unfounded claims regarding the security of these methods. In contrast, the GOP is now encouraging early voting. The substantial early voter turnout in Georgia, which has surpassed previous records, demonstrates the enthusiasm surrounding the current election.
Nevertheless, drawing definitive conclusions from early voting trends can be challenging as they often attract older voters. In states reporting the age demographics of early voters, the majority are over 65 years old, with a much smaller proportion under 40 years old. This disparity suggests a need for caution when interpreting early voting data.
The upcoming election remains unpredictable, with varying preferences among early and Election Day voters. As the campaign progresses, both candidates will continue their efforts to secure support and sway undecided voters ahead of the final decision in November.