No budget deal between the SNP and Greens would be good for both parties – by Paul Hutcheon
In December 2023, the SNP and Green partnership in Government reached a significant point with Finance Secretary Shona Robison presenting a Budget that included higher income tax rates for top earners and significant investments in combating climate change and active travel. However, fast forward twelve months, and the landscape has drastically changed. The Greens were ousted by Humza Yousaf in April, leaving John Swinney leading a minority administration. The prospects of another budget agreement between the two parties seem bleak.
Ironically, the failure to reach a compromise could benefit both the SNP and the Greens in terms of electoral gains. The SNP aims to re-engage with the middle ground of Scottish politics, which they believe the Greens had veered them away from. On the other hand, the Greens’ left wing perceives the leadership as having made too many concessions during their time in the government and see this as an opportunity to reclaim their core values.
In an effort to secure support for the Budget, the SNP government has engaged pro-business Minister Ivan McKee in negotiations and initiated talks with the Liberal Democrats. Despite the Lib Dems historically being sceptical of the SNP, they are likely to provide assistance, albeit with cautious support.
The consequences of a failed budget, potentially leading to an early election, would pose significant risks for opposition parties, particularly at a time when Labour is struggling in the polls and the Tories are facing challenges from Nigel Farage’s Reform Party. Therefore, passing the Budget seems to be the most likely path for Swinney, as he seeks a few MSPs to back his financial plans.
In summary, the absence of a budget deal between the SNP and Greens could serve as a strategic move for both parties, allowing them to regroup and appeal to different voter segments. The upcoming budget negotiations are crucial not just for the government but also for the political landscape in Scotland.
Paul Hutcheon, Daily Record Political Editor, provides valuable insight into the evolving dynamics between the SNP and the Greens, shedding light on the intricate political manoeuvring in the lead-up to the budget negotiations.