Donald Trump’s potential second term as President of the United States could have a significant impact on the Scottish economy, with experts warning of potential devastating consequences if tariffs are imposed on imports to the US. The possibility of a 20 per cent tariff on foreign goods entering the US has raised concerns about the future of key industries, such as whisky exports from Scotland. Trump’s previous administration had imposed retaliatory tariffs on Scotch whisky imports between October 2019 and March 2021, resulting in a loss of £600 million in exports, as reported by the Scotch Whisky Association.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has also cautioned that Trump’s economic policies could have negative repercussions not only for the global economy but also for the US itself. Dr. Fabian Hilfrich, an expert on US foreign relations, expressed concerns about the return of Trump’s potentially vindictive approach to politics and the impact it could have on Scotland, particularly its whisky industry. With Scotch whisky traditionally being a significant export to the US, any tariffs imposed could be devastating for the Scottish economy, affecting brands that are primarily bottled for export.
Hilfrich highlighted the challenges that negotiating opt-outs from American tariffs could pose for countries and the potential inflationary pressures that could arise as a result. Despite Trump’s personal ties to Scotland, including his mother being born there, it is unlikely that sentimentality would override economic priorities in his decision-making. The Scottish whisky industry, in particular, could face threats under a new Trump administration due to his past stance on tariffs and trade policies.
While Trump’s visit to Scotland later in the year is anticipated, his economic decisions have the potential to significantly impact the Scottish economy and key industries. The Scottish Whisky Association and the Scottish Government have expressed the importance of maintaining strong trade relations with the US for mutual economic benefits. Trump’s presidency could bring challenges and uncertainties for Scotland’s economy, requiring proactive engagement and strategic responses to navigate potential impacts on trade and exports.