Labour’s support has dropped below 30% as disenchanted older voters are turning away from Keir Starmer and towards Nigel Farage and the Tories, according to a recent poll conducted by Techne UK. The poll, which has been tracking weekly support levels in the UK since February 2022, recorded Labour’s backing at 29%, marking a significant decline from the previous election and a further decrease of five percentage points.
Meanwhile, the Tories, who are still in the process of selecting a new leader, saw a marginal increase of one point to reach 24% in the poll. Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party also experienced a slight uptick, rising to 19%. The Liberal Democrats and the Greens maintained their support levels at 12% and 7%, respectively.
The decline in support for Labour comes amidst internal turmoil within the party, with Keir Starmer recently sacking his chief of staff Sue Gray and facing criticism over controversial policy decisions. Concerns have also been raised over potential tax hikes, including a proposed increase in capital gains tax to 39%.
Of particular concern for Labour is the shift in support among older voters, who are increasingly expressing dissatisfaction with the party. This discontent has been fuelled by the decision to cancel winter fuel payments for 10 million pensioners as winter approaches.
For the first time since the election, Labour finds itself trailing both the Tories and Reform UK in the 55 to 64 age group and the 65 and over category. Among voters aged 55 to 64, Labour garnered 23% support compared to the Tories’ 26% and Reform’s 25%. In the 65 and over category, Labour’s support stood at 22%, trailing behind the Tories at 29% and Reform UK at 24%.
Since the election, Labour has seen a significant erosion of its voter base, with over a quarter of those who previously supported the party now indicating they would not do so again. Michela Morizzo, the chief executive of Techne UK, noted that Labour’s ability to retain support hinges on the fragmentation of the vote on the right, with the Conservatives and Reform UK sharing a significant portion of the electorate.
As the political landscape continues to evolve, observers are closely monitoring how the distribution of support may shift with the election of a new Conservative leader and the articulation of a fresh vision for the party as they position themselves for the next general election.