Britain’s leading pollster has issued a stark warning, stating that the Conservative Party stands little chance of winning under the leadership of either Kemi Badenoch or Robert Jenrick. Professor Sir John Curtice, renowned for his accurate analysis of public opinion, expressed his concern that both Badenoch and Jenrick lack the qualities needed to reverse the party’s declining fortunes.
In an exclusive article for The Independent, Sir John described the two contenders, who are vying to succeed Rishi Sunak, as “unknown quantities” who are ill-equipped to bridge the growing divide within the party. He emphasised that neither candidate has demonstrated a thorough understanding of why the Conservatives suffered their worst electoral defeat in recent history, casting doubt on their ability to regain the trust of voters.
Furthermore, Sir John highlighted internal conflicts within the Conservative Party regarding its direction and policies, noting that recent scandals such as Partygate and Liz Truss’s budget mishap have tarnished the party’s reputation. Despite calls for a return to traditional Conservative values, he asserted that simply reverting to old ideologies would not repair the damage caused by these controversies.
The pollster’s intervention comes following the elimination of more centrist candidate James Cleverly from the leadership race, paving the way for a potential rightward shift under either Badenoch or Jenrick. Criticism from the Tory Reform Group (TRG), a group within the party’s left wing, further underscored concerns about the rhetoric and focus of the two right-leaning candidates.
In a recent interview, Tory veteran Damian Green advocated for backing Kemi Badenoch in the final leadership vote, citing her recognition of the party’s need to rebuild trust and present a unifying vision of Conservatism. Despite his preferred candidate Tom Tugendhat being sidelined, Green emphasised the importance of avoiding extreme positions and instead focusing on a positive and inclusive agenda.
Sir John Curtice also pointed out that while Badenoch may attract voters from Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party, there is a risk of alienating traditional Tory supporters in the process. He concluded by acknowledging that both Badenoch and Jenrick have the potential to surprise observers but stressed the necessity for them to exhibit a broader range of political skills moving forward.