John Swinney is on track for a triumphant victory in Holyrood as indicated by a recent poll revealing a significant decline for Scottish Labour. The Norstat/Sunday Times poll, conducted after the SNP Government’s Budget, highlights that Anas Sarwar’s Scottish Labour is facing their lowest number of seats since the era of devolution. Initially, Sarwar was positioned as the frontrunner for Bute House in 2026 after his party’s impressive general election success in July across the UK. However, challenges such as growing discontent towards Prime Minister Keir Starmer due to issues like winter fuel payment cuts, the freebies scandal, and tax increases have impacted Sarwar’s standing.
The poll data from Norstat demonstrates that Swinney’s SNP is leading with 37% of the constituency vote for Holyrood and 32% on the regional lists, both figures showing an increase from August. These numbers could result in a slight majority of pro-independence MSPs if manifested in reality. In contrast, Labour’s ratings for the 2026 election under the first-past-the-post system have declined to 21%, with even lower numbers at 18% on the lists. There are suggestions that Nigel Farage’s Reform party is cutting into the pro-UK vote, affecting both Labour and the Tories.
A deeper analysis of the polling data predicts that the SNP would secure 59 MSPs, Labour would have 20 MSPs (their all-time low), Conservatives with 19 MSPs, Reform with 13, Lib Dems with 11, and Greens with seven. This poll is likely to be seen as a validation of the Scottish Budget by Finance Secretary Shona Robison, promising to reverse some of the cuts made by the previous Labour Government. Professor John Curtice of Strathclyde University remarked on Labour’s dwindling support since their triumph in the general election in July, indicating a significant shift in public sentiment.
In summary, the latest poll results indicate a favourable outcome for John Swinney and the SNP in the upcoming Holyrood election, while presenting challenges for Anas Sarwar and Scottish Labour. The data reflects a changing political landscape in Scotland, influenced by national and regional events, shaping the future political landscape in the region.