The Scottish National Party (SNP) is projected to become the largest party in the upcoming Holyrood election, with Scottish Labour facing a loss of seats, according to new analysis by polling expert John Curtice. The polling data, conducted for The Herald by Find Out Now, indicates the SNP holding 31% of the constituency vote and 25% of the list vote. Meanwhile, Scottish Labour is estimated to garner 19% on the constituency vote and 15% on the list, with the Scottish Conservatives at 12% in the constituency and 13% in the list.
The survey suggests that the SNP would secure 51 seats, down from 64 in the previous election, while Labour would see a decrease to 16 seats. The Scottish Tories, Scottish Liberal Democrats, and Scottish Greens are expected to win 15 seats each, with Alba and Reform securing eight and nine seats respectively. This would result in a pro-independence majority at Holyrood, with 74 MSPs supporting independence.
Curtice highlighted that the SNP’s positioning primarily stems from the decline in Labour support rather than significant SNP advancements. The rise of Reform is also noted in the data, while the SNP’s support appears to dip slightly compared to previous polls. Despite this, Labour’s struggles are predicted to give the SNP the opportunity to lead the next government, albeit from a relatively weaker position than their current standing.
The survey of 1,334 individuals was conducted between January 15 and 20, revealing that in a hypothetical Westminster election, the SNP would secure 31% of the vote, with Labour at 18%, and the Tories at 12%. Curtice’s analysis forecasts 31 seats for the SNP, 11 for Labour, six for the Liberal Democrats, and five for the Conservatives in such a scenario.
In conclusion, the upcoming Holyrood election is poised to showcase the SNP as the leading party, benefitting from the decline in Scottish Labour’s support. This shift indicates a potential pro-independence majority, setting the stage for an interesting political landscape in Scotland.