In the upcoming 2024 US presidential election, Vice President Kamala Harris is set to face off against former President Donald Trump in less than 36 days. As American voters prepare to cast their ballots, the economy remains a prevailing concern, with Republicans and Democrats divided on issues such as abortion and immigration. Both candidates are entering the final stages of their campaigns amidst a closely contested race.
According to the latest national polls compiled by FiveThirtyEight, Harris holds a 2.8-point lead over Trump on average. Recent data from Redfield & Wilton Strategies, surveying 2,500 US adults until September 26, shows Harris at 47 percent and Trump at 44 percent. The economy emerges as the primary driver of voter decisions, transcending party lines, although perspectives on key issues vary between Trump and Harris supporters.
Abortion ranks as the second most critical issue for 37 percent of voters, while immigration follows closely behind at 34 percent. Trump supporters prioritize immigration (57 percent), alongside healthcare and abortion (both at 23 percent). In contrast, Harris voters focus on abortion (55 percent), healthcare (40 percent), and housing (23 percent) as key concerns.
In battleground states, recent polls by Bloomberg/Morning Consult depict Harris leading by an average of +3 points, with varying margins in swing states such as Pennsylvania, Nevada, Georgia, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Arizona. The competition is fierce, with the economy remaining a top priority for swing state voters.
Independent voters could prove to be decisive, with a nationwide poll indicating Harris leading Trump by 5 points overall, and by +4 points among independents. The number of undecided independent voters has decreased, potentially tipping the balance in favour of either candidate.
Among registered voters, Harris holds a three-point lead over Trump, with significant support from young voters aged 29 and under. However, voter turnout among the younger demographic remains uncertain, contrasting with higher engagement levels among older age groups. Harris’s performance in the debate seems to have influenced female and younger voters positively, while Trump maintains a lead among male voters.
Favourability ratings present a complex picture, with Harris and Trump tied nationally at 47 percent, following the debate. Harris exhibits a positive shift among white, college-educated voters and improved understanding of key issues among voters. In contrast, Trump’s favourability remains negative, while Democratic candidate Tim Walz maintains a positive rating.
As the election date nears, both Harris and Trump are strategising to secure voter support and navigate the diverse landscape of public opinion. The dynamics of the race continue to evolve, with key issues and voter demographics shaping the trajectory of the 2024 presidential election.