Four mysterious accounts have been revealed to have placed $30 million in bets on Donald Trump winning the presidency in November. These bets were made on Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction market platform, where bettors have been increasingly favouring the Republican nominee’s chances in the upcoming election. Despite national polling averages by FiveThirtyEight currently showing Vice President Harris leading Trump by 2.5 points, the odds on Polymarket on Friday displayed Trump with a 60 per cent chance compared to Harris’ 39 per cent.
The betting activity on Polymarket took an interesting turn after October 7, with Trump gaining significant ground over his opponent. The surge in support for Trump is believed to be linked to four specific accounts on Polymarket – Fredi9999, Theo4, PrincessCaro, and Michie. These accounts reportedly staked tens of millions in cryptocurrency on Trump’s victory and are suspected to be operated by the same entity, according to Miguel Morel, the founder of Arkham Intelligence, a blockchain and crypto analysis firm.
Arkham’s investigation revealed that these four accounts received funding from deposits made on the US crypto exchange Kraken and exhibited similar betting patterns. They increased their bets simultaneously, focusing on Trump winning swing states along with the general election. Polymarket is currently looking into the presidential election market activity related to these accounts.
Concerns have been raised online that if Trump loses, he could potentially use the Polymarket odds to claim the election was ‘rigged’. Crypto investor Adam Cochran also warned that an increase in favourable odds for Trump could create a false impression of momentum not reflected in polls, likening it to effective political advertising.
This betting spree coincided with a statement by Elon Musk, a vocal supporter of Trump, highlighting Trump’s narrow lead on Polymarket in comparison to Harris. Musk’s post on social media emphasised the betting markets as potentially more accurate than polls due to real money being at stake. The impact of Musk’s post on actual betting activity remains uncertain.