The SNP and Labour are embroiled in a contentious “blame game” leading up to the 2026 Holyrood election due to dissatisfaction with public services, according to Professor John Curtice, the UK’s leading pollster. Curtice highlighted that both parties would be reluctant to risk an early election if John Swinney struggles to secure support for his Government’s Budget in the upcoming year. Recent polling data suggested that the SNP might retain a majority in Holyrood in 2026 with potential assistance from the Greens. However, Curtice noted a swift decline in public support for the new Labour Government in Westminster, impacting the party’s popularity in Scotland.
The academic from Strathclyde University cautioned against assuming that the SNP would automatically benefit from Labour’s waning support, emphasizing the rising influence of Nigel Farage’s Reform party as a potential disruptor in forming a stable government. Curtice pointed out the challenges faced by Swinney and Sarwar in securing enough MSPs for a majority government, raising uncertainties about the election outcome. While Sarwar proposed a minority government collaborating on a case-by-case basis, forming a government crossing party divides seemed crucial in the current political landscape.
Curtice warned that potential shortcomings in MSP numbers for both parties could lead to a government formation impasse. He highlighted the necessity of a pro-independence majority at Holyrood to sustain the independence debate. The expert elaborated on the economic and public service challenges facing the SNP and UK Labour Government, triggering a blame game dynamic between the two. He stressed the complexity of the political landscape and the difficulties each party might face in navigating the upcoming election and government formation.
In summary, the forthcoming Holyrood election in 2026 is poised to be a highly competitive and challenging political battleground for the SNP and Labour, with uncertainties around forming a stable government amidst public service dissatisfaction and economic constraints. Curtice’s insights shed light on the intricate dynamics at play and the strategic considerations for both parties leading up to the election.